2006-2007 NHL Preview

The New York Yankees and the Minnesota Twins were the two best teams in Major League Baseball after the all star break. The post-season arrived and the same teams, who held all the momentum in the universe, combined for 1 victory in October. What does this mean?

Well, first and foremost, my BWC playoff prediction is hooped. Secondly, it serves us notice that predictions are in fact useless.

It is the nature of this publication, which posts one sports article per two weeks, to have a large number of prediction articles. The time of year being what it is, with new seasons starting, teams having new players, other leagues reaching the post-season—it just makes sense to write about what we think is going to happen.

But now, thanks to the Yankees and Twins, you probably think I’m an idiot. And you know what? I might be inclined to agree with you. I should have trusted my gut instincts. Before September I was telling anyone who would listen that the Tigers would play the Mets in the World Series. It was the perfect script—two teams that had success in the 80’s and then pretty much went in the can for years, returning to prominence at the same time, with the Tigers power pitching against the Mets slugging.

Then the Yankees stayed hot. The Twins too. I mean hot. Meanwhile, the Tigers hit the tank, the lowest of their low occurring as Kansas City swept them— and I was getting nervous. I mean sweating, shifty-eyes, ‘just made a gay joke in the Gap’ nervous. After all the shameless self-promotion of my baseball forecasting, I copped out and took the easy road. The ‘sure’ thing. Look where it left me.

This brings us to the start of the NHL season and as I write this, the Minnesota Wild and Atlanta Thrashers are undefeated. The Carolina Hurricanes, Nashville Predators and the Ottawa Senators, once powerhouses, are at the bottom of their respective divisions. It’s like I’m living in some sort of parallel universe where teams that were supposed to be mediocre are dominating and teams that were once unstoppable can’t buy a win, or scarcely a goal.

So what do we do? Well, we wait for the system to correct itself. If history has taught us anything it’s that teams need to learn how to win. First you learn in the regular season, (Ottawa and Nashville have done that) then you learn how to win in the post-season. Ask Steve Nash and the Phoenix Suns about that.

First we will dissect the upstart teams that have come screaming out of the gate. I’ll tell you who is going to last and who is going to hit the wall. Then we’ll look at some of the underachievers, and let you know who to put your money on in April.

Minnesota Wild- Yes, they won their first four games. Yes, they made some improvements to their team, namely Kim Jonsson, Pavel Demitra, Mark Parrish and Branko Radivojevic. Granted, they do have a burgeoning superstar in the speedy Marian Gaborik and solid goaltending in Manny Fernandez. But they play in the Northwest division, easily the NHL’s toughest division in the NHL’s toughest conference. The regular season schedule being what it is, the Wild have to play Edmonton, Calgary, Colorado (who look better than I thought they would) and Vancouver eight times apiece this year. Though the Wild are probably better than Vancouver, the Canucks still have Roberto Luongo in goal, meaning even the worst team in the division can beat you on any night. This is not the case in the Central division. The Wild will make progress this year, without a doubt—but there is still a learning curve in the NHL. This will be their year to fight for a playoff spot, miss that spot, and find out exactly what it takes to get there.

Atlanta Thrashers- Kari Lehtonen was supposed to do this last year. A wonky knee injury got in his way. He’s already posted two shut-outs in four games. As long as he stays healthy the Thrashers are a threat to win. Considering they’ve won three out of four games so far, and their electric star Ilya Kovalchuk hasn’t scored yet, I’d say they could be for real. They narrowly missed the playoffs last season, and the only way they are getting in this year is if Lehtonen steals it for them. Their defence isn’t deep, and neither are their forwards. Marian Hossa and Kovalchuk will score enough to keep them competitive, but the key to their success lies in keeping pucks out of their own net.

Buffalo Sabres- The Sabres have started this season with 5 wins and they are for real. This team is an early Stanley Cup favourite. I watched them play against Montreal last week and it was one of the best games I’ve ever seen. I’m not kidding, I was trying to think of a game in the last few years that I enjoyed more, not from an emotional tied-to-the-team standpoint, but from a hockey purist standpoint. I couldn’t think of one. The Sabres come in waves, with Chris Drury and Daniel Briere headlining the group. They are a legitimate four line hockey team up front and get solid contributions from their D. This is all before we get to Ryan Miller in goal, who will surely be an all-star this season. He is as skinny as he is stellar between the pipes, often resembling a punk-rock roadie, but that is neither here nor there.

Columbus Blue Jackets- The Blue Jackets have started 2-0-1, with their only loss coming in OT against the Vancouver Canucks. They traded goalie Marc Denis to Tampa Bay for winger Freddy Modin, giving the starting net-minder duties to Pascal LeClaire. Modin combines with Anson Carter and Sergei Fedorov (when he gets back from his injury) to give the Jackets two legitimate NHL lines for the first time in their history. Their first line is a dangerous one too, featuring Rick Nash, Nikolai Zherdev and David Vyborny. I am a huge Nash proponent, and if you have a fantasy team, get him on it. He could score 60 goals this year. He has other-worldly release on his shot and at his size and speed, few teams will be able to stop him from shooting the puck. The problem in Columbus won’t be the first two lines, it will be the two that follow them. Their third and fourth lines are comprised of minor-league players meaning depth will be the downfall of these Jackets. Adam Foote is a warrior-like defenseman and a great leader who will teach their young defenseman innumerous amounts of invaluable information— which will only make their team better in the long run. Columbus will finish third in the Central division behind main-stays Detroit and Nashville, meaning they’ll miss the playoffs yet again.

Teams That WILL Wake Up. (Eventually)

Nashville Predators- The Predators have yet to win a game. They are the only team in the NHL without a point despite having a better team than they did last season, when they nearly won the Central Division. But here’s why they’ve struggled; Goalie Tomas Vokoun is coming back from a really weird disease, he’s struggling to get his rhythm and timing back. It’ll get here eventually and he’ll be fine. Meanwhile, the Preds are trying to incorporate two more 20-goal scorers into their line-up, JP Dumont and Jason Arnott. They’ve already got Steve Sullivan, Martin Erat and Paul Kariya up front, so ice-time is going to be the more sought after in Tennessee than the Dixie Chicks. Unless no one likes the Dixie Chicks anymore, I have no idea, I’ve never been to Tennessee and I don’t know anything about the Dixie Chicks. The Predators have a talented, young, deep defense corps led by Kimmo Timonen and Marek Zidlicky. Dan Hamhuis is an all-around defenseman, Shea Weber provides the muscle and Ryan Suter fills the role as ‘guy whose dad used to be good and is pretty good himself.’ Every team has one of those.

Ottawa Senators- The Sens beat my Toronto Maple Leafs on opening night, then proceeded to lose three in a row, including a 6-0 drubbing the following night against Toronto. Personally, I hate the Senators and I hope they lose the remainder of their 78 games. Professionally, I know that they have more than enough talent to finish second to Buffalo in the Northeast division. Daniel Alfredsson, Dany Heatley and Jason Spezza will be playing on the same line again soon and they’ll fill it up. That’s such a Jay Bilas thing to say. The Sens lost Martin Havlat and Bryan Smolinski to the Chicago Craphawks, and though Havlat is irreplaceable, Smolinski’s ice-time can be filled by Mike Fisher, who is an extremely complete player. Fisher will hit, score, hit, win face-offs, hit and be responsible defensively. The Sens lost their jolly Slovakian Giant Zdeno Chara to Boston, but they still have Wade Redden, who is one of the most complete defenseman in the world. The future looks bright for their defense as well due to the lightning quick development of Andrej Meszaros, another fantasy stud. Add goalie Martin Gerber into the equation and it is clear the Sens will rebound from this atrocious start to the season. Unfortunately.

Carolina Hurricanes- Ask the Tampa Bay Lightning how difficult it is to win the Stanley Cup and then come back and follow that up with a strong year. Carolina is suspect, because they use a platoon-style defensive corps, a young goalie and every team is now gunning for them. Up front, Eric Staal and Erik Cole are among the most talented players in the game. But are they enough? After the Eric(k)’s the drop-off in scoring is significant, with Mark Recchi, Doug Weight, and Josef Vasicek gone. Andrew Ladd will need to contribute goals. There is no stand-out defenseman on their blue-line and they just traded American Jack Johnson, a consensus future all-star defenseman, to the L.A. Kings for Tim Gleason and Derek Armstrong, two players whose names you will NEVER hear again. That doesn’t add up. Now throw in the fact that their goalie, Cam Ward, is 22 and has never had a full season as an NHL starting goalie, despite winning the Conne Smythe (MVP of Playoffs) last year, and you can see the recipe for potential failure. It’s either that or they win the whole thing again.

San Jose Sharks- Last night they gave up 5 unanswered goals to the Oilers and lost the game 6-4. There’s no excuse for that with a group as talented as the Sharks. Two seasons ago, the Sharks went to the Conference finals and everyone thought they’d start the ‘05-‘06 season as the team to beat. I forecasted them to finish 1st in the West. Then they came out slowly, crapped the bed most of the year, got hot in the final month and lost to Edmonton in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Naturally, because they’d have Joe Thornton for a full season, I thought they’d be this year’s cream of the crop in the West. As of last night, the bed reeks again, though this team should right the ship soon. They’ve got two good goalies in Evgeni Nabokov and Vesi Toskala, and a young, blue-chip defenseman in Matt Carle. Oh, and that Jonathan Cheechoo guy, who won the Rocket Richard trophy last year as the NHL’s goal-scoring leader.

Calgary Flames- Everyone is picking the Flames to win the Stanley Cup. Do they watch the Flames? They can’t score. My buddy Dave said, “every time they get the puck they immediately seek to DRIVE it into the end boards.” They have the best goalie in the league in Miikka Kiprusoff. They have the best young defenseman in the league in Dion Phaneuf (keep an eye on him, he’s incredible) and they have Jarome Iginla who might be the only Flame to register a goal this year. Obiviously I’m joking, but they have significant depth problems up front. They traded for Alex Tanguay a skilled winger, but he’s not comfortable playing in Calgary’s system, and it’s showing. He was a complimentary player in Colorado, a third fiddle to what Sakic, Forsberg and Hejduk were doing a few years ago. Now he’s getting first-line attention from the other team’s top defenders and is struggling to make the adjustment. Calgary’s D is tops in the league, so they won’t allow goals, but can they find enough scoring to make them a Stanley Cup contender? I’d say not.