It’s Baseball Awards Time

(Editor’s Note: Due to problems with our server, this article is being posted after the awards have been announced.)

Let me start by saying I hate postseason awards. They are voted on by sports writers that use nebulous criteria like team leader, intestinal fortitude and mental toughness to cast their vote. A load of problems exist when you put awards in the press-box-buffet-stained hands of writers. Barring a monster year without other good candidates, it always goes to a player on a playoff team. These are problems for sure, but probably the greatest problem with selecting awards is what criterion is best. And no, Derek Jeter’s moxie and “will to win” do not qualify as valuable. However his .900 OPS as a shortstop does count. Statistics are the cleanest criteria. They erase reliance on intangibles, and properly compare players based on performance. This does not have to be hard-core sabermetrics nor should they require a BS in statistics. However, some common sense and the ability to think for yourself will come in handy. Here are a few tips.

Don’t use bad logic: One of the worst formulas concerning awards is 1+1=2. It is never that simple. The Tigers were awful the last three seasons. Add manager Jim Leyland and the Tigers make the playoffs and have the best turn around in baseball. Despite what Joe Morgan and others say, baseball managers have very little impact on games. Unless Joe Torre forgets to write down Jeter, Giambi and Rodriguez in the lineup, the Yankees will have a good chance at winning. The opposite is true if Tony LaRussa micro-managed the Nationals. Calling for a double switch is meaningless if your pitching staff is lousy.

Don’t factor in history: This applies to all sports awards. If Barry Bonds already has 7 MVP’s but is the best player again, he deserves the MVP. Jeff Kent didn’t deserve it in 2000, Bonds did. Prior success should not matter. The reverse is also true, single season awards are not lifetime achievement awards.

A caveat to the historical plea is the reliance on past results to decide current awards. First Baseman Rafael Palmeiro won Gold Gloves in 1997 and 1998 establishing himself as a very good fielder at his position. In 1999 he won a third Gold Glove, pretty amazing. What’s most amazing is the fact he played 85% of his games at DH.

Don’t Be Cute or Unique for Argument’s sake: Just as Zubaz aren’t cool anymore, Dare to be Different should not be the goal of awards voters. If David Ortiz is far and away having the best year, don’t invent an argument how Jason Varitek is the heart and soul of the Red Sox. Just because David Eckstein hustles does not mean his is more valuable to the Cardinals than Albert Pujols. Eckstein is not in the same area code as Albert Pujols talent-wise. Pujols is 314: downtown St. Louis. Eckstein is more of a 417 (Branson, MO). Hustle and scrappy play are swell, but never as valuable as a home run.

Vote for the best player with the best season: Immediately excluding designated hitters and pitchers from winning an MVP is wrong. It certainly is more difficult for a player that doesn’t play in the field or a pitcher with less than 300 innings pitched to win, but it shouldn’t be deemed impossible. This is the attitude of many baseball analysts and even players. The truth is a starting pitcher does have a very large impact on a team’s success. Johan Santana has pitched 233 innings this year, and faced 892 total batters. Compare that to a batter that will have between 650-750 plate appearances and it shows a better picture for a starter’s value.

Designated hitters like Ortiz and Travis Hafner get penalized for not playing in the field. I have even seen writers credit Manny Ramirez for playing in the field. Manny is a terrible fielder and that should detract from his candidacy. The only reason Ramirez plays in the field is because it is against the rules to have two DH’s in a lineup. George Lucas wouldn’t get extra points towards the Oscar for best director if he happens to make a cameo in his movie. Ortiz is doing his job, and is not harming his team. If a player plays the field they must have that factored as well, both good and bad.

Use the right stats: Oakland’s Bob Welch won the Cy Young in 1990 based chiefly on his 27 wins. Actually he was the third best pitcher on the A’s. Dave Stewart had better numbers on the same team (ERA+ adjusted based on ballparks where 100 is average). Stewart was better in every category except wins. Boston’s Roger Clemens had even better numbers than Stewart, yet Welch stole the award.

Don’t be mad at Welch, it’s not his fault. He had a good year and happened to get great run support. He also had the game’s best closer in Eckersley to ensure his starts turned into wins. The writers that foolishly place value in wins are to blame. The problem is certain stats like wins, saves, RBI and runs scored are not individual stats. Unfortunately, they are all used to judge individuals. Roger Clemens allows one run, but still loses because the Astros can’t hit and offer no run support. On the flip side Chien-Ming Wang allows five runs, but gets the win due to the Yankees granting him 6 runs of support.
Closers are often considered clutch and are sometimes said to have the toughest job in baseball. While this is sometimes the case, the measuring stick is not saves. Most closers pitch one inning, usually without inheriting runners and often in a two or three run game. This is not that difficult and is exactly why pitchers like Ryan Dempster and Derrick Turnbow can rack up saves. Many managers won’t use their closer unless it’s a save situation. This is not to say closers are not great pitchers, but you won’t find their greatness in saves.

The same goes for an RBI. David Ortiz hits a grand slam gets 4 RBI. Up next is Manny Ramirez, who also homers for 1 RBI. The same performance from Ortiz and Ramirez, but different contexts. And that is why the RBI stat is a terrible indicator of production. Runs fall under the same banner. Derek Jeter gets on base and Jason Giambi drives him in. Joe Mauer doubles, but no one else gets a hit in the inning and he is stranded. Does Jeter have more skill because he scored a run? It seems simple, but these are still considered hallowed stats by the majority of people.

Websites like Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Reference and Hardball Times have an avalanche of stats that do a very good job of measuring performance. They range from simple (OPS) to advanced (VORP, WARP) to downright hard core (WPA). How deep you want to go to determine the proper awards is up to you. As long as logic, common sense or any semblance of intelligence is used, you’re ahead of many writers. Just don’t get too upset when the real winners are announced.