Thank You…David Stern?

This may come as a surprise to you, but we may actually need to thank David Stern. In less than a month we’ll be treated to one of the wildest, most entertaining NCAA tournaments we’ve ever seen. That’s saying a lot considering the tourney’s reputation is built on fans being able to expect the unexpected.

But when the chips fall where they will in March, and we have more memorable moments than CBS will be able to fit into their ‘One Shining Moment’ montage (but oh, they’ll try), it’ll be Stern who deserves the credit. It is his minimum draft age requirement that is treating us to one of the best freshman classes, and college basketball seasons, in recent memory.

Ohio State features the much publicized Greg Oden, who was a lock for the first overall pick before the world discovered the Texas Longhorns 6’9” forward Kevin Durant, whose per game averages of 24.9 points and 11.4 rebounds have him pushing Oden for that top-pick. Not to mention making himself a candidate for the Wooden award. North Carolina has a talented freshman trio of Brandon Wright, Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington, though among them, only Wright could have gone prep-to-pro. Those three are currently ranked as the top-three prospects in America on NBAdraft.net.

All of this means we’ve had a wild few months of basketball. This week, Duke dropped out of the top-25 for the first time in 11 years (holy Bobby Hurley Batman!). The top teams in the country, Florida, UNC, Ohio St., Kansas, UCLA and Wisconsin (arguably) have all at times looked equal part National title contender and Sweet Sixteen pretender.

The #1 ranked Florida Gators have big wins against Ohio St and Tennessee, but they also have losses to Kansas and Florida St. Ohio St, ranked #2 have three losses, but they were to the Gators, Wisconsin Badgers and North Carolina, all top-four teams. The Buckeyes have no real impressive wins this season, and only one major match-up remaining, against the Wisconsin Badgers. #4 North Carolina has three big wins against Ohio St, Arizona and Duke, but they also carry blemishes suffered from losses to Gonzaga, Virginia Tech (twice), and NC State. UCLA sits at #5, and were the pre-season #1 but have fallen to the likes of Stanford and West Virginia, though they have big wins against Arizona, # 6 Texas A&M, Oregon and surprising Washington St, who have snuck into the #10 spot.

Like that paragraph, the outlook is muddled. I’m not in love with Florida, and the only game I’ve seen them in this season is when they beat Ohio St, and they looked good doing it. From every highlight pack I’ve seen it’s apparent no one can stop the Gators from running and gunning. Al Horford is a steady defender and rebounder (spell check has informed me that rebounder is in fact, not an actual word) which allows Joakim Noah to get out on the break and fill the lane for easy dunks. If Noah was forced to play the five he’d be less effective, and since he won’t play the five in the NBA, Horford’s presence plays to Noah’s strengths. Meanwhile, Al has seen his own stock rise and could also be a lottery pick. Ultra-lanky swingman Corey Brewer gives them more size (6’9”) and athleticism on the wing.

Greg Oden has won me over. Last week against Purdue he ran the length of the floor and blocked an open lay-up. I was struck at how well he ran for a 7-footer. Let’s face it, most of us expect big men to run like Eric Montross or Gheorghe Muresan. I’m a little tired of hearing everyone rave about Oden shooting free throws with his left-hand, but in truth, I’m probably only tired of it due to extreme jealousy. I mean come on! Left-handed? Once Oden wraps his brain around the term ‘defensive rotation’ he’ll be unstoppable at both ends of the court. Also, I would love to see him fight Georgetown’s Roy Hibbert. It would be insane, about 16 feet of total reach and just limbs flailing everywhere. One of them would accidentally knock out the other’s cut man. No one between the center of the ring and the first row would be safe.

Equally important to the Buckeye’s success is freshman guard Mike Conley Jr, who played with Oden at Lawrence high. I’ve watched a handful of OSU games this season and Conley has impressed each time. He’s averaging 10.4 points per game, 6.3 assists and 52.7% from the field, he’s strong and athletic and has the ability to put points on the board when Oden is nailed to the bench with foul trouble.

I really like North Carolina. If you forced me to a pick a team right now, gun to my head, that’s who it’d be. Of course everyone will rave about Hansbrough, and in truth, though I’m not a huge proponent of him, I’ve never seen him have a bad game. I think the key for the Tar Heels will be their trio of freshman, Brandon Wright, Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington. Wright (14.6 pts, 6.6 reb, 64.7%) is a world-class athlete at 6’9” who would certainly get more touches if Hansbrough was out of the picture. He may not wait around for Tyler to take off, as Wright is the third-ranked player behind Oden and Durant for the upcoming draft. Point guard Ty Lawson (10.3 pts, 5.2 asts, 53%) reminds many of another Raymond Felton, and he served Arizona notice with an 18 point, 8 assist performance in their drubbing of the ‘Cats. With four upper-classman on their roster, inexperience could be the Achilles Tar Heel, if you will, meaning 6’8” senior Reyshawn Terry may end up as the catalyst for this team. Yes, the kids can score, but if Terry can’t give them key defensive rebounds and an inside presence late in the game, they could be upset early, especially if an opponent manages to get Hansbrough in foul trouble.

Arizona has been my team for 12 years. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the Wildcats. It seems that they are more than a little schizophrenic this season, going 17-8, with some big wins against Memphis and Oregon and then laying an absolute egg in a catastrophic performance against North Carolina. Going into that Carolina game all the hype was about the Pac-10, and how strong it is this year, and then Carolina handed a 28-point spanking to the Cats. I still think the Pac-10 is where it’s at this year though. There is a lot of buzz about Marcus Williams (16.7 pts, 7.1 reb) and even more lately about Chase Budinger (pictured above as the dunking, curly-haired white guy), the freshman who recently torched Oregon for 30 points and ten rebounds. I’ve seen him play a few times, and he’s either on fire from the outside, or he’s flat out useless. Two nights before burning Oregon he had 4 points on 1-7 shooting against Oregon St. The first Arizona game I saw this season was against UNC and I was left mumbling, “this is the Budinger kid everyone raves about?” He might as well have been bringing fresh pens to the coaching staff. Then I see him a few weeks later and he looks dominant against Oregon. Basically, for Budinger the sky is the limit, but he has yet to show up on a nightly basis. He’s 6’7”, used to play volleyball and has an incredible vertical leap, rumored to be 45 inches. The only catch is that he’s built like a volleyball player, meaning he’ll need to put on some muscle to be a force inside and out. In a perfect world, Williams, Budinger and frosh big-man Jordan Hill would all play together next year. Instead, Budinger and Williams will likely bounce to the League next season while I’m left to do nothing more than rant for the next two years about what this team could have become.

Keeping with the Pac-10, I finally saw the much-hyped Aaron Brooks of the Oregon Ducks. He reminded of a mini-Gilbert Arenas—high volume shooter who won’t blow you away with athleticism but can score around the basket by contorting his body in a number of ways. He’ll never dunk on anybody, but you won’t see him get his shot blocked often either. Impressive for a guy who stands 6’0” tall and 165 lbs. Oregon however has lost 4 of its last 5 games, with Brooks shooting 17-61 (27.8%) from the field. All things considered, Brooks strikes me as a big-game player. With the game on the line, in the tourney, I predict Brooks makes some clutch, game-winning plays.

If I had to pick a player of the year right now, I’d go with Durant. His numbers are insane and he is the only player who could be picked ahead of Greg Oden. David Stern, you’ve done it again, it’s a shame this year will be defined as the year of the composite basketball fiasco. As for you, loyal reader, get some rest. In two weeks, it’s time to embrace the Madness.