NCAA Tournament Picks

Let’s be honest.

We love to pretend we know exactly what’s going to happen during the NCAA March Madness tourney, but we’re only fooling ourselves. It’s simply impossible to sit down and make informed, rational decisions when filling out a NCAA tournament bracket. You have to rely on feel and intuition and if those tools fail you- then you flake out and pick the favored seed. This is necessary because the tournament doesn’t play out like informed, rational basketball. Common sense says that Kansas slaughters Bucknell last year. Cinderella succeeding in the realm of the informed? Forget it. George Mason doesn’t see the Sweet Sixteen last year if we’re dealing with what should happen.

But I’m a realistic guy. I watch more college basketball than everybody I know. I track teams and players from before Christmas all the way up through the Conference Championships. And all I really know is that I don’t actually know anything. Absolutely anything can happen, and the people who usually win the office pool are the girls (if you’ll indulge my gender stereotype) who pick the winner based on the colors in the logo or the team name. All I know from all the games I’ve watched, articles I’ve read and propaganda I’ve sifted through is that the NCAA tournament is the least predictable event in sports.

I know some will read this and disagree. I have a buddy who lives in this camp. He told me he can’t fill out his bracket until Wednesday night, and when I told him it would only take five minutes he informed me that he’d be researching each and every game. As if any amount of research will inform him about who has the edge between Old Dominion and Butler.

Another friend of mine, who on his own admission hadn’t watched a college basketball game in years, would walk around with his chest puffed out like a toucan if he picked a game right. Hello!? You have a 50% chance of picking a game right. Wake up.

That being said here’s who you should have picked (or not picked) for your Final Four:

Midwest Region

For your information, Butler gets Old Dominion. Why you ask? Because a 12 seed, in this case Old Dominion, almost always beats a 5 seed. It happens once a year, but I can’t root for a team called Old Dominion. Dominion is a chain of grocery stores in Canada with the slogan “we’re fresh obsessed!”

Nonetheless, I have Arizona coming out of this region, beating Jordan Green’s beloved Oregon Ducks in the Elite Eight contest. How do I rationalize Arizona beating Florida? I don’t really, I just know that Arizona is my favorite team, I’ve rooted for them for 13 years and I’m not going to stop now, especially not for some gangly, gap-toothed kid named Joakim.

In truth the Wildcats have a lot of explosive scoring, and they could get hot and do some damage. The problem is they have ZERO defense and if they go cold from outside then they’ll get buried, which is exactly what happened in North Carolina. With little interior presence, the Wildcats will be relying on the three. Live by the sword, die by the sword.

My dark horse from this region is Georgia Tech. I really think they could do some damage to teams that aren’t paying attention. Javaris Crittenton and Thaddeus Young make a lethal young combo, and I’m convinced the Yellow Jackets will make some noise.

West

The Kansas Jayhawks will emerge from this bracket if only because they are deep and happen to be hot like fire right now. There are a lot of teams that I doubt in this region. I’m not a believer in the UCLA Bruins, especially not after that egg they laid in the Pac-10 tourney. Last year everything went the Bruins’ way and I think they’ve used up all their good fortune. I can’t see Pitt’s style of play matching up well with Kansas. The Jayhawks go too deep and they are versatile and along with UNC, have the fire-power to put together the nation’s deadliest runs. They withstood two Kevin Durant barrages in the last two weeks of the season and came out on the winning end of both contests, showing they can come back when the chips are down and close out when everything’s on the line.

The only other notable thing from this snoozer of a region is that I think Duke will lose in the first round to VCU. I hate Duke; always have actually, ever since the Trajan Langdon era. The Blue Devils are as vulnerable now as they’ve been since I’ve been alive, and I think a first-round exit would add salt to their wounds. And it would make Josh McRoberts cry, which would be entertaining and would take some of the heat off Adam Morrison.

East

When I saw this region I nearly cried. When I thought up my ideal Final Four before the selection show I had Georgetown, UNC and Texas all in there. Then they all came up in this region, and I had to make some gut-wrenching decisions. To make matters much worse, as though the basketball gods were piling it on me all at once, another one of my sleepers, Marquette, is poised for a second round match-up with the Tar Heels.

In the end, I went with Kevin Durant. Texas comes out of this region because I believe we will see several of the finest individual performances in NCAA history. I really think Durant is that good. I understand that it’s a popular place to be, the Durant band-wagon, but I’m not going to be shy about it. This kid is unbelievable. By the time this tourney wraps up his name will be in the Pantheon of legendary NCAA performances.

Truthfully, the Hoyas and Tar Heels could come out of the East just as easily, but the system requires me to make a choice, and I’ve gone with my heart on this one.

South

Texas A&M guard Acie Law IV will be a legend after this tournament as well. But for different reasons than Durant. Durant will shoot the lights out, average 33 points and 14 boards, but Law will make the game-winners. He’s going to give us those last-second, hold your breath, clutch performances that make the tournament worth watching. The Aggies will lean on him down the stretch and he’ll carry them to the Final Four.

I know, everyone wants to give Ohio St. and Florida the title game, and I do like Ohio St., but the simple truth is that there is no way that those teams are going to be in the NCAA basketball final and the BCS title game. It’s a statistical impossibility. I say the Elite Eight contest between the Buckeyes and Aggies comes down to the final seconds, and Law will make the winning shot.

Also, Memphis will go out early, probably in the round of 32 against Nick Fazekas and Nevada. Memphis hasn’t been tested all-year and a cupcake schedule never comes in handy in March.

Final Four

I’ll keep it short and sweet. Kansas gets through Arizona, only because I don’t believe I have the good fortune of seeing my Wildcats in the Championship game. If I was a luckier soul, I might feel otherwise. The Aggies will beat Texas, despite a legendary Durant performance, after which he’ll likely collapse on the court because other than D.J. Augustin he’s got NO help.

The National Title? 86-85 Aggies, on the back of an Acie Law IV game winner. He did it to Kansas earlier in the season and he’ll do it again.

Bryan Allain

Year after year I scribble the names of our country’s finest universities on a symmetrical collection of right angles in hopes of channeling Nostradamus or Pat Robertson.

Year after year, I fail.

This year I decided to seek out help. After much soul searching (and channel surfing), I decided to go to the only man who could help me in a situation like this. A man who I respect as much as my pastor, love as much as my favorite t-shirt, and fear as much as being audited.

Jack Bauer.

He was a bit preoccupied with saving the world to sit down and help me solve the 5 versus 12 puzzle, so I just followed him around for a day hoping to glean some solid “intel” from him while he made frantic phone calls and tortured his relatives. Here’s how it went down:

09:30 – We’re headed South on the 415, following an unmarked Cadillac. Jack is on the phone with CTU, and apparently they want him to end his pursuit and come back in. Jack’s having none of it, screaming about how he hasn’t volunteered for this mission, how it’s his job to uphold the law, to protect the people. Suddenly it hits me. He’s not just talking to his boss, he’s talking to me. He’s dropping clues about the tournament. I glance down at the South Region of my bracket and it all makes sense. I write in the Tennessee VOLUNTEERS over Ohio St. and Acie LAW IV’s Texas A&M team over Memphis. Since no one is above the Law, I’ll take the Aggies to advance to the Final Four.

10:13am - Jack’s daughter just called and said she is out in the woods stuck in a cougar trap again. What are the odds of that happening twice to the same person? Jack dispatches half of CTU’s resources to go rescue her.

11:32am – We’re running full speed from men who are trying to kill us, covered in the blood of slain terrorists, but all I can think about is the Midwest region. I have Florida, Wisconsin, and Maryland advancing to the Sweet 16 from this bracket. I ask Jack who my fourth team should be as gunshots ring out from behind us. “DUCK!” he yells. “Good choice, but no need to yell,” I say as I pencil in the Oregon Ducks to face Wisconsin. When I stand up to ask him if Oregon can beat Wisconsin, he screams, “I said DUCK!” A bit unnerved, I write in Oregon to move on and face Maryland in the Elite Eight. Not wanting Jack to scold me again, I decide to end Oregon’s run in the tournament and send Maryland to the Final Four.

11:59am – Why is it that every time I look down at my watch to see what time it is, there’s this loud echoing clock noise reverberating in my ears?

12:10am – Jack and I just met with President Wayne Palmer. I was completely unimpressed. 120,000 members in the screen actor’s guild and this is the best we can do? Thankfully, electing a president works out better in real life. Based on Palmer’s completely uninspiring presence, I immediately mark George Washington down for a first-round loss in their East Regional game. Moving on to the Sweet Sixteen from this bracket I have North Carolina, Texas, Vanderbilt, and Georgetown. As I waffle back and forth on whom to bring to the Final Four from this bunch, Jack breaks the nose of a Secret Service worker who was reaching into his pants pocket for an altoid. Wait a second. Didn’t UNC’s center Tyler Hansbrough just suffer a broken nose in a game? I’m sure it’s a sign from Jack. The Tar Heels will beat Georgetown to advance to the Final Four.

2:45pm – I just realized why you never see Jack Bauer go to the bathroom on TV. He just goes in his pants. It’s disgusting.

3:11pm – Jack takes me to the Region West Shopping Mall where terrorists have gunned down a handful of civilians. As we walk by the chalk outlines of the innocent victims, I realize why he’s brought me here. He wants me to take the favorites, or “go with the chalk” as they say, in the West Region. I pencil in Kansas to beat Southern Illinois and UCLA to beat Pittsburgh in the Sweet Sixteen games. I’m about to write Kansas down as my Final Four team when Jack takes off running. Racing to catch him, I ask him where he’s going. His answer, “to save Los Angeles”, clearly has a double meaning. He wants UCLA in the Final Four. Fearing some intense torture if I don’t comply, I write UCLA in as my last Final Four team. I’ve got what I came here for. Time to go home.

Epilogue – Jack Bauer helped me decide my Final Four, but I knew I had to pick the last 3 games on my own. As I thought about what I had learned with Jack, the choices became clear. I saw Jack do things today that a man could get consecutive life terms for. The law can take you far, but sometimes you have to move past it to get things done. For that reason I have North Carolina beating Acie Law and his Texas A&M squad to move on to the Finals.

Unfortunately for the Tarheels, that’s as far as I’ll have them advance. If I learned only one thing with Jack today, it’s that everything he does is in the best interest of the people of Los Angeles. My bracket shall be no different. UCLA will beat North Carolina to claim the National Title. I hope CTU can download the game to his phone so he can watch it from his holding cell at the Russian Consulate.

Now I just have to figure out how to get these blood stains off of my bracket sheet.

David Azuma

Midwest – Oregon Ducks
The Florida Gators are the logical pick here as they won it all last year with an identical roster. They’re experienced, talented and to top it all off they own the overall #1 seed in the tournament. Really, I’m an idiot not to pick them. Instead I’m going with the Oregon Ducks who have all the ingredients to make a Final Four run. Senior guard Aaron Brooks has been a four year starter for the Ducks and gives them a steady hand at the point. Their secret weapon is diminutive guard Tajuan Porter who is capable of breaking games wide open with his sweet outside stroke. At 5’6” Porter isn’t even tall enough to ride the roller coasters at Disneyland. Luckily he’s plenty tall enough to cut down the nets when the Ducks win the Midwest region. After all, he’ll have a stepladder to help him.

West – UCLA Bruins
I know UCLA delivered a bit of a stinker in the PAC 10 tournament against California. However I also remember last years NCAA’s when the Bruins seemed to come up with the big plays when they needed them most. I think this year’s bunch can do more of the same. Guards Arron Afflalo and Darren Collison are tremendous on the ball defenders and can also hit from beyond the arc. These two give the Bruins the opportunity to control the game and then take it over. Forward Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, the man whose name makes PA Announcers everywhere cower in fear, has also shown a knack for delivering clutch performances. To win their bracket UCLA is probably going to have to go through a loaded Kansas team. I’ll take the Bruins, who know what it takes to get to the Final Four.

East – North Carolina Tar Heels
Someone told me yesterday that this Tar Heel team is very reminiscent of the group that captured the national title 2 years ago. I couldn’t agree more. These young Tar Heels are eerily similar to the squad that included Sean May, Raymond Felton, Rashaad McCants and Marvin Williams. They have a solid inside scorer (Tyler Hansbrough), a speedy point guard (Ty Lawson), a shooting guard who can hit from 3 and put it on the floor (Wayne Ellington) and a game-changing freshman (Brandan Wright). The Tar Heels main man will be Tyler ‘Psycho T’ Hansbrough. The sophomore forward plays as if he values floor burns, black eyes, and broken noses, as much as he does points and rebounds. Last time UNC had personnel like this, they took home the hardware. This year they’re my pick to do the very same thing. Talk about déjà vu.

South – Ohio State Buckeyes
Down in Columbus, Ohio there sits a dynamic young team that has captured the hearts of the local faithful. It’s not the BlueJackets (that’ll take approximately forever to happen). It’s also not the Buckeye football team, who are probably hatching a chicken from the egg they laid in the National Championship game against Florida. Instead Ohio State basketball has taken the reins and emerged as a serious contender in the tournament this year. Consider me sold on Ohio State. They showed what they were made of in the Big Ten tournament where they were clearly a level above Wisconsin, a good team in their own right, in the Big Ten Championship game. Freshman Greg Oden, who looks about as old as Dikembe Mutombo, has shown a similar penchant for blocking shots and dominating the boards at both ends. While Oden is certain to be a major factor, I think it will be freshman Mike Conley Jr. who makes the difference for the Buckeyes. Your point guard needs to step up in the tournament and I predict that Conley propels Ohio State to a Final Four berth.

Posted on March 19, 2007 12:00 AM