NFL Draft Recap

Immediately after I volunteered to write a recap of the 2007 NFL Draft it occurred to me that I hate most draft recaps. The most astounding thing about them is the apparent lack of common sense.

One of the biggest problems is that most writers’ grades are based off of mock drafts. If the mock draft is wrong, and most are, then any opinion built from a mock draft will be wrong. In 2002 the Bengals picked offensive lineman Levi Jones tenth overall. The pick was widely panned as a reach because mock drafts had Jones lower. Jones has become a Pro Bowl caliber player and excluding Dwight Freeney, is better than anyone the Bengals could have taken in the next ten picks.

The other problem is that most “experts” are nothing more than television personalities. The only way to truly gauge talent is by analyzing film or personal evaluation, and there are very few experts that take the time to do either. Not getting paid to watch film for eight hours a day for three straight months proves two things: I have a life and also have no clue who the best cornerback in the draft is.

What I do know is that there are some general patterns in the draft that many of the experts fail to see. Instead of boring people with a report card of every pick or scolding all 32 teams, I thought I would point out some general trends and a few select glimpses of the more interesting picks.

1. Oakland: QB JaMarcus Russell-LSU
The Raiders defense was ranked third in the league in yards allowed in 2006 so Oakland’s problem was that their offense was disgusting. With offense being the obvious need, it comes down to the classic talent versus need dilemma. Do you take the more talented Calvin Johnson at a position that is already stocked? Or should you take Russell at quarterback, even though he won’t be a finished product for at least a year or two? The biggest stat on Russell: 335 lb bench press. Considering how bad the Raiders’ offensive line is, Russell better be able to lift defensive ends while flat on his back.

2. Detroit: WR Calvin Johnson-Georgia Tech
It has become a running joke that the Lions only draft receivers in the first round (4th in 5 years). That being said it was still a smart pick to take the man whom everyone considered the best player available. The Lions can find a quarterback prospect in the lower rounds or a veteran during summer salary cuts. They also traded one of their former picks, Mike Williams, to Oakland. One warning: the wide receiver position has a steep learning curve in the NFL; there are very few impact rookie receivers.

7. Minnesota: RB Adrian Peterson-Oklahoma
Adrian Peterson fell to number 7 primarily because of an injured collarbone. If you are picking sides for a game next Sunday, that might be a concern, but the NFL season doesn’t begin for five months. Even if Peterson isn’t at full speed in year one, it’s still a pretty good long term plan to take a player that could be a star.

9. Miami: WR Ted Ginn-Ohio State
The Dolphins pick Ginn resulting in a media blitz to document Brady Quinn’s disappointment. For the next twelve picks ESPN can’t resist showing Quinn in hopes they can capture him crying. It seems like ESPN prefers stirring up emotion instead of reporting what is happening. Meanwhile, Miami gets hammered for not taking Quinn with Mel Kiper appearing to be personally offended by the snub. Maybe the Dolphins made a mistake, but popular opinion does not always prove correct in the long-term. Until Ginn is exposed or Quinn becomes the next Marino, it’s only fair to assume that Miami has a better plan than a guy that writes a weekly football column about coffee.

10. Houston: DT Amobi Okoye-Louisville
Okoye is a 19-year old senior. Most normal 19 year olds are still declaring their majors. Kiper preferred Okoye over Michigan’s Alan Branch because Okoye had more tackles in college. That is ridiculous. Tackles are secondary to an interior lineman’s job description. Plus they played in vastly different conferences, on teams with vastly different defensive schemes.

11. San Francisco: LB Patrick Willis-Mississippi
Prior to the pick, Steve Young said you could write down Willis’ name in blood to go to San Fran. Creepiness aside, I’m always wary of the fast risers. Almost every year a player climbs the charts based on their workouts and 40 times. Anyone remember Mike Mamula? How long will people remember Kyle Boller? They were both workout wonders. I understand the concept behind auditioning every player in the same environment at the combine as it’s the best way to compare players objectively. What baffles me is the emphasis placed on drills that have little football context. Very few plays involve running 40 yards in a straight line (let alone in track shoes), but somehow this is the gold standard for explosiveness. Troy Williamson impressed scouts with his blazing 40 times before the 2005 draft and was taken with the 7th pick. Then he put on pads and people realized that he can’t catch footballs very well. I would much rather see 20 yard agility scores. Kiper is especially fond of 40 times, which drives me absolutely crazy.

14. NY Jets: CB Darrelle Revis-Pittsburgh
18. Cincinatti: CB Leon Hall-Michigan
20. NY Giants: CB Aaron Ross-Texas
So who is the best corner available? I’m still clueless and carefree. I’ll take Ross simply based on Texas’ recent track record for defensive backs.

22. Cleveland: QB Brady Quinn-Notre Dame
Finally it’s over. Yes Quinn is drafted by his boyhood team, and more importantly ESPN’s excruciating coverage of Quinn’s saga is finally over. It happens almost every year, especially for quarterbacks because most teams already have a young prospect. I don’t feel bad for Quinn and if ESPN didn’t try so hard to squeeze emotion from the story, no one would care. The Browns wind up with two first round picks that will probably start immediately.

29. Baltimore: G Ben Grubbs-Auburn
Apparently Grubbs loves playing football. I keep hearing announcers say this. I am curious who the bad apple is that reluctantly plays football for money? Additionally, I would love to hear an analyst come out and label someone a bust. People freely guarantee super stardom for prospects, when will someone for example say, “Joe Thomas is the next Tony Mandarich.” Of course, that isn’t possible because Robert Gallery currently holds the Next Tony Mandarich title belt.

32. Indianapolis: WR Anthony Gonzalez-Ohio St
The draft began around 9:00am pst and the first round finally ended at 3:20pm pst. One round that takes six and a half hours is way too long. You would think that since teams spent the last three-plus months preparing for the draft, they could make their decisions in less time than 15 minutes. The later rounds afford five minutes per pick to decide among lower profile prospects that may have not even worked out.

Only six more rounds to go! Then everyone will want to immediately proclaim winners and losers (if you want a credible recap FootballOutsiders.com is one the best). It’s an interesting tradition to instantly pass out labels on something that is intended for a developmental system. Without inside information or hard work, I prefer to wait and decide in three years.

Finally, a closing section I like to call “If I had a Mel Kiper Jr marionette or voodoo doll”

1. I would tell him Calvin Johnson isn’t a blue-chip, can’t-miss prospect, just to mess with him.

2. Shock him every time he says bona-fide, phenomenal or flat-out.

3. Remember Sterling Sharpe’s helmet with the strap in the back to keep his neck in place? What if Kiper had to wear one?

4. Limit him to one piece of information per sentence.