NFL Reality Check

The gun has sounded and the 17-week drag race that is the NFL regular season is underway. Preseason is over and the real games, with players who we can actually identify without their uniform numbers, are taking centre stage. As always, week one reinforced some popular preseason predictions (ex: The Patriots and Colts are good, Atlanta is not) and cast doubt over some others (The Bears? Reggie Bush?). However, contrary to our opening analogy, week one does not make or break the season. A good start is important, but it is the team that maintains its momentum all year long that will emerge victorious. So think of the NFL season as a drag race…on unicycles. While you ponder that, here are some predictions that you can trust and some that should be selling on bookshelves next to Harry Potter.

The San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals are this year’s sleeper teams.
Fiction

A lot of very knowledgeable football people are trumpeting the 49ers as a trendy sleeper pick this year. Tight end Vernon Davis certainly has the potential to be a star and running back Frank Gore proved last year that he is an all around threat. This summer they augmented the roster by trading for wide receiver Darrell Jackson and breaking the bank to pry cornerback Nate Clements away from the Bills. The 49ers get an A for effort thanks to these moves, but here’s why it won’t work. The plan hinges on quarterback Alex Smith having a breakout year. I’m not saying Smith should be written off in his 3rd NFL season, but what has he shown to this point that makes a breakout seem imminent? Sure he’s got talent, and he’s had plenty of reps in the last couple years, but I’d like to see him start putting it together before I consider him a difference maker on offence.

As for the Cardinals, they burned me last year when I said that Edgerrin James would balance out the offence and make up for an O-line that run blocks like they’re on rollerblades. Safe to say I have learned my lesson with this group. This is the NFL and offensive line play matters. The Cards have changed three of the five starters on the line and overhauled the coaching staff. Will it matter? No.

The Detroit Lions and Houston Texans will continue to reside in the cellar of the NFL standings.
Fiction

Ladies and gentlemen, here are my sleeper picks for the 2007 season. These aren’t your ordinary sleepers either. These are real sleepers, the kind of teams that nobody would ever pick in Madden. Folks, I give you the Detroit Lions and the Houston Texans.

Let’s start with Detroit. Jon Kitna made headlines this summer when he predicted the Lions would win 10 games this year. That is a bit of a stretch, but the days of the Lions being an NFL laughingstock are over. For the first time in a long time, Detroit was smart in the off-season. After years of watching RB Kevin Jones prance around like a man wearing Styrofoam shoulder pads, they replaced him with Tatum Bell. Bell has spent his NFL career studying at the D.B.S.O.R. (Denver Broncos School Of Running). He’s an aggressive runner who will be anxious to prove that he’s not just a product of the vaunted Denver offensive system. Another good move was the selection of WR Calvin Johnson. Johnson is the type of talent that can transform an offence. He can stretch the defence vertically and will also corral many of those “wobbly balls” that Jon Kitna threw up in the red zone last year. The re-signing of DT Cory Redding and the return to health of former all-world DT Shaun Rogers, will anchor the Lions defence and help keep them in games. Bottom line: Don’t sleep on Detroit.

Matt Schaub, the unproven but highly touted former Falcons backup, will be running the show at QB in Houston. Now I know what you’re thinking. If Alex Smith isn’t ready to turn around the 49ers, how can you say Matt Schaub can turn around the Texans? Simply put, I don’t think Schaub will turn around the Texans. In fact, I have no idea what he will do. The man threw 27 passes last year. Nobody knows what to expect from him. The place where Houston will make some hay is on the defensive side of the ball. LB DeMeco Ryans is a tackling machine and CB Dunta Robinson has become one of the premier two-way defenders in the league. And then there is everyone’s favourite #1 draft pick, DE Mario Williams. Mario may never live up to the distinction of being taken ahead of Reggie Bush and Vince Young, but he is well on his way to being an impact player on the D-line. Check the stat sheet from the Texans week 1 victory over Kansas City. Mr. Williams recorded 2 sacks, 1 fumble recovery and a touchdown. Not bad. Which is what you’ll probably say when you see Houston’s record at the end of the year.

The Denver Broncos made the best move of the off-season by bringing in RB Travis Henry.
Reality

Travis Henry is physical, tough and runs like a runaway Peterbilt. Hmm, sounds like a guy who might do well in Denver’s downhill running scheme. Head coach Mike Shanahan has proven that he can win with just about anybody running the football, now he has a player who seems born to wear the orange and blue. Henry will be the best Bronco running back since Terrell Davis. If week 1 was any indication (139 yards on 23 carries) the Broncos should be able to ride him all the way to the top of the AFC standings.

Running back Larry Johnson will keep the Kansas City Chiefs afloat in the AFC West
Fiction

Things will be very ugly in Kansas City this season. The Chiefs no longer reside among the NFL’s offensive elite. In fact, this year they will be one of the worst teams in the league on that side of the ball. Key losses on the offensive line, notably OG Will Shields, will make life difficult for RB Larry Johnson. Larry always tries valiantly but a body has only so many carries in it. Johnson carried the ball 416 times last year (no wonder he wanted a new contract) and that number should be within reach again this year due to the putrid passing game the Chiefs are certain to put forth. Ah yes, the quarterbacks! Kansas City will be going to battle with Damon Huard at the pivot. If he should falter Brodie Croyle will step in. Word has it the next man in line is Rick Mirer. Just kidding, but honestly, would you be any less confident in him than the other two? Fans at Arrowhead Stadium had better bring lifejackets to games this season because the ship is sinking in Kansas City.

In only his second season, New Orleans RB Reggie Bush will make the leap to NFL superstardom.
Fiction

While there is no doubt that he is a special talent, everyone’s favourite Subway spokesman is going to have to iron out a few of the flaws in his game before joining the league’s elite. Reggie is as good as anyone in the league at making defenders miss in the open field. However the young running back leaves something to be desired when it comes to his between the tackles running. At the moment, the Saints have Deuce McAllister around to handle the tough running but you’ve got to believe that they are anxious to see Bush prove that he is ready to carry the mail as the feature back. Before that happens he will have to show a little more fire in his belly in short yardage situations.

Philadelphia’s Donovan McNabb, one of the most underrated players in the league, will bounce back from knee surgery and catapult the Eagles to the top of the NFC.
Reality

Yes you read that correctly, the man who has been on the cover of Madden and on the label for Chunky soup is one of the most underrated players in the NFL. Every year McNabb faces new questions about his play and every year he battles through them and keeps his Eagles in contention. People have said his passing accuracy needs work. A career completion percentage of just under 60% and a TD to INT ratio of more than 2:1 say otherwise. There are also some who have questioned his toughness. Perhaps they forgot this is the same guy who once threw four touchdown passes in a game while playing with a broken ankle. Finally, there are some who dared to blame Donovan for the chemistry problems that existed during the Terrell Owens era. Well, one player is still in Philadelphia and the other is not. I think it is safe to say Donovan was not the problem. If I could have one wish for this NFL season, it would be that football fans across North America finally recognize Donovan McNabb as the great team leader and quarterback that he has been for much of his career.

Rex Grossman’s erratic play at quarterback will hold the Bears back from Super Bowl contention.
Fiction

The statistics don’t really show how bad Rex Grossman was down the stretch last season. He looked like a 10-year-old on a sugar rush with a slingshot in the Super Bowl. But can you honestly expect Grossman to play any worse than he did last year? If the Bears defence and running game could compensate for a mediocre passing attack all of last season, why can’t they do it again this year? Despite a disappointing first game in San Diego, the Bears have too much talent to let poor quarterback play hold them back. They will contend for a berth in the Super Bowl once again.

The Indianapolis Colts are still the team to beat.
Reality

The New England Patriots will be close, but in the end nobody in the league will be able to keep up with the Colts this season. Indianapolis is that rare team where everyone in the organization is on the same page. The fact that they were able to win the Super Bowl a year after losing RB Edgerrin James to free agency speaks volumes about the team’s leadership and mental makeup. This team has been forged by disappointments of past seasons and emerged as an experienced and well-rounded juggernaut. They have always been blessed with great talent. The difference now is that the talent is spread on both sides of the ball and functioning as a cohesive unit. Their head coach Tony Dungy has endured heartbreak on the football field and tragedy off of it. He is a quiet leader and a rock of a man whose qualities are ingrained in his football team. Indianapolis has become equal parts skill and character. That is what separates them from the rest of the NFL.