Fantasy Basketball Questions and Answers

1) Who’s the #1 pick?

Jon Adams: LeBron James narrowly edges out KG here. The King is clearly dominant and most people agree that he should bounce back after a lackadaisical regular season last year. If he decides to channel the LB23 that did you-know-what to the Pistons in the post-season, then his averages will be up across the board—from 27, 7 and 6 per game.

Dave Azuma: Well Jon, I’ll let you take the guy who mailed in half the season last year while I take the guy who treats every game like a hardwood Super Bowl. Kobe Bryant. Not only is he arguably the best player in the league, he’s also a guy who seems to take his statistics very seriously. He gives you solid production from the guard position in the assist, rebound, steal and 3 point categories, not to mention the fact that on any given night he can go off for 50+ points. He’s got no holes in his fantasy game and you know Kobe won’t tolerate any drop in his personal production. No matter what team he ends up playing on, Bryant is the top dog.

2) What perennial blue-chipper should I avoid this year?

Azuma: It’s got to be Jermaine O’Neal. The Pacers big man is still a solid player but a big part of fantasy is reliability and that’s where O’Neal will kill your squad. Check out his games played over the last three years (44, 51, 69). To top it off, his scoring average dipped below 20 ppg for the first time in 5 years. Couple all that with the young frontcourt talent Indiana has added the last couple years (Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Danny Granger) and you’re better off letting O’Neal be someone else’s problem this year.

Adams: I’ve got a bad feeling about Shawn Marion. He’s a perennial fantasy lock, but with his new found dislike for the Suns organization he’s now asked to be traded. This may be the first athlete to actively seek out tanking his own career. You play with Steve Nash!! Steve Nash!! There are only two other guards in the league who could do for you what Steve does! When Marion goes his numbers will slide in every category. Has this guy ever created his own shot? All of this comes down to one rule for fantasy drafts—do not draft idiots.

3) Who’s this year’s best all-around fantasy player?

Adams: LeBron James here again. He hits every statistical category, gets easy dunks to boost his FG%, shoots it well enough from outside and is guaranteed to get to the line. Add in his penchant to read defenses for those ball-hawk-like steals for just under two a game and you’ve got the all-around threat you need.

Azuma: Jon, the guy who you are going to stay away from is the same guy I’d sell the farm to get on my fantasy team. Shawn Marion all the way. This guy gives you more variety than Baskin Robbins. You want points and rebounds? Marion is your man. Looking for steals, assists and blocks? He can give you that too. You name it and “the Matrix” does it. The fact that his FG% and FT% are solid is just a cherry on top of a rocky road ice cream sundae. And if you’re worried about what a trade would do to his fantasy value, one look at his career numbers should be enough to ease your fears. Marion’s been an all around fantasy threat since long before Steve Nash joined him in the desert. Bottom line: Shawn may be foolish to demand a trade out of Phoenix, but you’d be even more foolish not to take him on draft day.

4) How soon should I draft Kevin Durant?

Azuma: I’d take him in the 3rd or 4th round. He’ll probably put up 20 ppg but I don’t think he’ll be a factor in the rebounding and assist categories. That being said, the most important thing for rookies in fantasy sports is playing time. Durant is guaranteed to see plenty of that. Feel confident taking him early.

Adams: If you wait that long Dave he’ll be off the board. Durant should go no earlier than the second round, but don’t wait until the late third. He’s going to play, and he’s going to get shots in Seattle. There’s a chance he might be slow out of the gate, but I would bet a lot of pesos that by the 15th game or so he figures out a number of ways to scorch opponents. The man is an assassin, and will learn to pick defenses apart, all while being abused defensively and watching his team lose a shocking amount of games. Durant will also challenge Gil Arenas for the most game-winning buzzer beaters this season.

5) How soon should I draft Greg Oden?

Adams: Ask Kevin Pritchard.

Azuma: Take him right after Vitaly Potapenko but before Randy Livingston. In all seriousness though, this was a terribly unfortunate injury for Oden who would’ve certainly been a top 5 center pick had he been healthy.

6) Are there any Cavs worth taking other than LeBron?

Azuma: Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Having him as your starting center is kind of like getting a tie for Christmas. Not the most exciting thing, but could definitely be worse. Year in year out “Big Z” puts up solid points, rebounds, blocks and FG%. That’s all you can ask for from a center in fantasy.

Adams: I call him the BIG ZZZZZ because watching Ilgauskas lumber around the court is a stellar cure for insomnia. I’m going with Larry Hughes. I know Hughes is injury prone, but when you get into the middle of your draft, I think he’s more than worth the risk. He can score, he can play D, and he’s bound to get assists playing with that James guy. Other than that, I’d avoid the Cavs roster at all costs. But keep your eye on Daniel Gibson on the waiver wire. If Boobie gets hot, he might be worth picking up.

Azuma: Don’t like getting ties for Christmas do you Jonny?

7) Are the Suns primed for a downturn?

Adams: I think so. Like the Sacramento Kings a few years ago, I think the Suns missed their window of opportunity. I know I mentioned Shawn Marion already, but I think this could be a rough year for the Suns. Amare Stoudamire and Steve Nash are both having problems staying healthy (and Nash is not getting younger) and they have to fit Grant Hill into the mix. I think that Hill is an intelligent enough player to make the transition smoothly but if Marion jumps ship and Stoudamire and Nash can’t stay healthy, things get thin for the Suns real quick. Boris Diaw and Raja Bell are fantastic as role-players, but none of the Suns will be as effective without the Nasher in the line-up. That being said, Leandro Barbosa will probably have a great season.

Azuma: Not so fast Jonny! As long as they still play that run and gun style, Phoenix will continue to be a fantasy goldmine. Amare Stoudemire’s knee didn’t hold him back last year and I’m going to keep riding the Steve Nash train until he runs out of track. As for Shawn Marion, I think he knows the quickest way to get out of Phoenix is by continuing to do what he does best. Fill up the stat sheet.

8) Will the Celtics big three see their individual numbers decline as they defer to one another?

Azuma: No. Allen, Pierce and Garnett took 21, 18 and 17 shots a game respectively last season. It’s not unrealistic for them to be able to equal those attempts this year. Who else is going to shoot the ball on that team? Kendrick Perkins? Tony Allen? No way. Boston is going to live or die with the big three and there will be plenty of basketballs for that trio to pad their fantasy numbers.

Adams: I have to agree with you on this one. While I would expect a slight drop from Pierce or Allen, I don’t think that they’ll suffer much. Pierce is durable and an efficient scorer, and his shooting percentage will benefit from Ray doing all the shooting. Garnett will create a TON of open looks for Allen out of the double-team (you don’t double KG and he KILLS you) and so Ray-Ray will be allowed to shoot all day-day. However with Allen, those wobbly ankles are always an issue, so while I slap a buyer-beware tag on him I’ll mention in the same breath that he could pay huge dividends.

9) Will the Knicks new front line of Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry be as big of a boom for fantasy owners as it will for the New York fast food industry?

Adams: I personally am not a big fan of the Knicks front-line, and I could certainly see Eddy Curry eating himself out of depression by Christmas. Furthermore, the Eastern conference didn’t exactly get smaller over the summer, and these two wide-bodies need look no further than their own division to find KG and Chris Bosh, two outstanding bigs who will dominate you unless you’ve brought your A-Game. Randolph has been battling polished bigs for a few years now and should be good for 20-10 providing he doesn’t sulk on the bench after watching Jamal Crawford and Alan Houston (wait, who?) jack three after three.

Azuma: You’re right on with this one. There’s not enough room in the paint for both of New York’s supersized frontcourt players. Both of these guys have proven they can score around the basket, but I doubt that there are going to be enough shots for both of them. Like you said, New York’s got a lot of people who operate by the “why pass the ball inside when I can shoot an off-balanced three pointer from the corner” mantra. That spells trouble for the big boys inside. Randolph is the better player, so expect less of a dip in his numbers. Curry however should see a fall in production.

10) Who’s the sleeper pick you should shock them all with?

Azuma: Take a look at Randy Foye for this one. Minnesota is in rebuilding mode and Foye is one of the horses that they are going to be running with. He can fill the basket and should raise his assist numbers as the T-Wolves starting point guard. 20ppg and 7 apg is not out of the question.

Adams: Do whatever it takes to draft Josh Smith. This guy is making strides and I’ve ever heard that he’s making the token, “I’ve added 15 pounds of muscle and shot 4,000 balls a day,” comments. I know everybody says that, but if it’s true of Smith he’ll add a scoring arsenal to his freakish blocks and dunks. Add in the fact that Joe Johnson will get him good looks, the Hawks could have a great 1-2 punch on their hands. I can’t believe I just wrote that.

Azuma: Didn’t Darius Miles say something like that once upon a time?

Adams: You think Darius Miles was ever as good as Josh Smith?

Azuma: Can’t say he was but he has had a more distinguished movie career. Ever seen The Perfect Score?

Adams: No.

11) Who’s going to bounce back this year?

Adams: Move over Rafer Alston there’s a new PG in town— Steve Francis. And don’t think that Francis can’t handle the Point Guard duties. He’s averaged over 6 apg in his career. His numbers were bad in New York, but he was unhappy and bogged down by the Knicks 26-guard backcourt. Finally healthy again, he’ll take a reduced role in Houston and enjoy more space with T-Mac and Yao around. As long as there’s no T-Mac and Stevie Franchise tension (and there might be), I’d expect solid numbers from Francis.

Azuma: Steve Francis? The guy’s knees are as soft as donuts at this point! Brad Miller is this year’s bounce back player. For years Miller was like the thanksgiving dinner of fantasy centers. He gave you all the meat and potatoes (points, rebounds, FG%) with a little bit of gravy on the side (assists). Last season Miller was more like the Burger King of fantasy centers as he put up pedestrian stats while battling nagging injuries. Word on the street is that the workmanlike big man came into camp in fine shape and is once again expected to be a rock in the middle for the Kings. Expect him to revert to his statistical norms in 2007-08.

Adams: Brad Miller is like thanksgiving dinner alright—he’s a turkey.

12) Who’s primed for a break-out season?

Azuma: Set sail for the great white north (or Toronto) for this year’s breakout player. Former #1 pick Andrea Bargnani is penciled in as the Raptors starting center this season. Expect the sweet shooting Italian to put up points, blocks and 3’s while having one of the best free throw percentages among starting centers. The added minutes should boost his rebound numbers and transform “Il Mago” into a fantasy monster.

Adams: Get ready to hear the name Monta Ellis a lot. Now that Nellie’s staying in G-State and J-Rich has flown the koop, Ellis will see more minutes to use his slashing and athleticism to enjoy the fruits of that run-and-fun Warriors offence. 16, 3 and 4 were nice averages, but this year Ellis takes his game to another level.

13) Who’s the best rookie after Durant?

Adams: While people are high on Detroit Pistons guard Rodney Stuckey, I don’t think he’ll see enough minutes in the Pistons backcourt. Thinking short-term (as in this year, not the best overall) I think New Orleans Hornets forward Julian Wright will be a great fit with Chris Paul. Wright is a jack-of-all-trades, which bodes well for fantasy and he will get easy buckets when he combines his finishing ability with Paul’s distribution.

Azuma: Keep an eye on Mike Conley Jr. in Memphis. He’s got Damon Stoudamire in his way at the moment but if you don’t think Conley can do better than Damon’s 7 points and 4 assists per game, I suggest you start following another sport. Conley is a big league athlete who can inject life into a franchise that frankly…nobody cares about right now. Expect him to be starting and putting up solid numbers by the New Year.

14) Which Florida Gators should I draft?

Azuma: Atlanta Hawks PF Al Horford should get quality minutes in Atlanta’s frontcourt and he’s got the tools to put up solid numbers in his freshman season. He’s the only Gator that I’d go after.

Adams: I have to agree. Horford is easily going to make the biggest immediate impact. He gives the Hawks decent size and good athleticism inside. An added bonus for the Hawks is that he wants to be down low, bucking the new trend of bigs that want to go out on the perimeter and handle the ball. Another Hawk Shelden Williams is similar, but Horford is more athletic and mobile. Corey Brewer could be better in the long run, but Horford is more NBA ready today.

15) Will Robert Swift’s new look translate into legitimate fantasy production?

Azuma: Sonics head coach P.J. Carlesimo must think tattoos count for something because he’s planning to give Swift considerable minutes at center. In a league that is short on quality centers, the ponytailed Californian might be a decent source of blocks and rebounds.

Adams: The only thing Robert Swift will produce is a hotly contested debate as to who is uglier: Swift or Chris Kaman. You be the judge.

16) Is Tim Duncan a man or a robot?

Adams: Duncan has career averages of 21.8 pts and 11.9 reb suggest that he is, in fact, not human. Add to the numbers his stiff body movements and lack of expressions (that is lack of expression to you, Joey Crawford) and you have to think that TD should be called TD-3PO.

Azuma: Come on Jonny, he’s not a robot. Robot’s have been known to shoot better than 63% from the foul line. And what do you mean no expressions? Duncan smiles once a year…when the Spurs win the championship. Actually, that does sound like a bit of a robot doesn’t it?

17) Is Adam Morrison a boy or a girl?

Adams: On the one hand he has a mustache. On the other hand, he’s a cry baby. Nonetheless I still have to go with guy, as girls are not usually that tall. Then again, I’ve been wrong before.

Azuma: All I’ll say about Adam Morrison is his mustache is in the same boat as his game; a few years away from respectability.

Posted on October 22, 2007 12:00 AM