Fantanking

Today, Sunday, February 24, 2008 the Toronto Maple Leafs are in 14th place in the Eastern Conference standings with 20 games to play in the regular season. That equates to 27th place in the entire NHL, which equates to a potential lottery pick in the upcoming draft.

The thing is, Toronto is only 7 points out of a playoff spot. With 19 games to play, this is not an insurmountable obstacle. To make matters more complicated, the NHL’s trade deadline set for this Tuesday the Boys in Blue must decide now if they’ll go for that coveted playoff spot, or trade away aging (and in the case of Mats Sundin, beloved) talent for youthful prospects and draft picks, which is to say, to trade them for hope.

Making the playoffs would benefit the Leafs financially, but the odds of winning the Cup would be slim. This would mean they’d finish out of the lottery, and be subject to a potentially mediocre draft pick in a draft year when the lottery has a handful of great prospects.

All these factors lead me to new territory as a diehard fan. Even in the last few years, when things have been a little bleak, I never considered this to be an option. The Sports Guy was in similar territory a while back and he coined the phrase that I will now address: Fantanking.

Simply put, this idea requires me to cheer for my team to lose. I know, it sounds horrible, but maybe it’s not as bad as it first seems. By cheering for the Leafs to lose now, I would be helping secure a blue-chip prospect, and thus becoming an advocate for success in the future.

In the meantime I would come across as one who abandons ship during a team crisis. But we’ve got to plan ahead, isn’t a lack of planning (and several nightmarish front office decisions) what landed us in this mess?

Of course, tanking is not a fool-proof plan. Many teams have been selecting in the lottery for years and have not built winning teams around high draft picks. The Atlanta Hawks come to mind, even though now it looks like they’re starting to turn it around, they mired in mediocrity for years, also due to several horrible front office decisions (read: Chris Paul vs Marvin Williams).

In hockey however the lottery seems to pay out. The Tampa Bay Lightning picked Vincent Lecavalier 1st overall in 1998, and they won the Stanley Cup in 2004. The Carolina Hurricans selected Eric Staal 2nd overall in 2003 and they won the Stanley Cup in 2006, with Staal leading the team in points in the playoffs.

The Pittsuburgh Penguins, since 2002, have selected defenseman Ryan Whitney (5th overall ‘02), goalie Marc-Andre Fleury (1st overall ‘03), current NHL points leader Evgeni Malkin (2nd overall ‘04) and the cherry-on-top Sidney Crosby (1st overall ‘05). I mention this because the Penguins are now two points out of first-place in the East. Two years ago they were bad enough to warrant a first overall pick.

The lottery matters. This is where you get the superstars. The 2008 is set to be no different. Steven Stamkos, of Youtube fame and the Sarnia Sting, is the consensus projected No. 1 overall pick, and players like this tend to turn into superduperstars. No, that’s not a word. There’s no questioning his talent, nor the need for the Maple Leafs to have a hometown star (Stamkos is from nearby Unionville, ON).

For a Leaf fan, it’s a situation promising enough to cause me to drool. Many others see it the same way, leading critics to believe that the pressure placed on young Mr. Stamkos’ shoulders would be far too great a weight for any man to carry.

I, however, see it differently. I must admit to being a bit of a defeatist when it comes to matters of the Maple Leafs. Yes, I am cheering for us to lose in the hopes that we land the first overall pick. But deep down, I’m not sure where, I feel we won’t get it. And so Stamkos will be absolved of that pressure, and go back to having the regular pressure of attempting to becoming simply one of the best 10 or so hockey players in the world.

I’m sure the Sports Guy felt the same defeatist attitude when the Celtics were tanking. The draft rolled around and Boston landed neither Oden or Durant. Both hailed as saviors, both headed to the Northwest rather than Eastern seaboard. But on the other hand, look how things turned out for the Celtics…

Come to think of it, can Kevin Garnett skate?