Fire Your Manager

I am a victim. A victim, of hope.

You see, a few months ago, I mistakenly believed that the Toronto Blue Jays were going to be a good baseball team. I’m not the only one who was duped; there was a palpable buzz around the city before the season began.

We had high hopes for last season as well, but those were dashed by injuries. A glimmer of expectancy was salvaged by the surprising young pitching arms of Dustin McGowan, Shawn Marcum, and Jesse Litsch to complement Roy Halladay and A.J. ‘sometimes I care about baseball’ Burnett.

In March of ‘08 the Jays were hoping to put an underwhelming season from All-Star Vernon Wells, who suffered through ‘07 with a shoulder injury, behind them. If he returned to form to pair with break-out star Alex Rios, the Jays would have two of the best outfielders in the AL. Combined with the trade of the tempermental and lazy Troy Glaus for the workhorse Scott Rolen, it seemed as though we had a lot of guys who could swing the big stick. And, as I mentioned, the newfound plethora of young arms. Things were looking up.

That is, things were looking up until we started playing baseball. In a season where the perennial American League East powerhouse New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox started slowly, we were poised (on paper) to jump out to a quick start and put distance between us and the giants (not the Giants). While we faltered early, one team did manage to seize the opportunity - the Tampa Bay Rays.

Not only did the Blue Jays not take advantage of their rivals faltering, they also managed to be downright disappointing for what is now half a season. The Frank Thomas fall-out, Roy Halladay throwing complete games and losing due to a shocking lack of run-support, and even the emergence of Lyle ‘double play’ Overbay as my most dreaded Blue Jay.

The Jays have simply stunk. It all culminated in one bizarre week when GM JP Riccardi blasted Cincinatti Reds slugger Adam Dunn in the press (his current numbers, 22 HR 52 RBI, are by far better than any Blue Jay), and then fired manager and friend John Gibbons.

In some cases having a new coach can help you. If you’re rebuilding or changing the club’s professional attitudes, different styles, different ways of motivating, etc. can really help. And surely Gibbons and Riccardi both know that coaching in professional sports has long carried with it a short-term job expectancy.

But here, the finger must be pointed back at Riccardi, whose sole purpose to Torontonians is to put together a team. Now, he feels he is not getting what he should out of the group, and thus blames the manager, not himself. In comes Cito Gaston, and since his arrival the Blue Jays are exactly what they were; at best a .500 team.

This leads me to why I believe I am a victim of hope. When I looked at the line-up, I agree with Riccardi and others, that there was a lot of talent. Wells has spent the better part of this decade dominating both sides of the ball, Rios is still an undeniable five-tool player, Rolen though aging still makes sparkling plays on defense. It doesn’t stop there. Lyle Overbay once led the NL in doubles and batted .316 in his first season in Toronto. David Eckstein was a World Series MVP. Aaron Hill was being mentioned as a potential All-Star at 2nd base last year. Our only question mark was behind the plate, with aging Catcher Gregg Zaun inventing new ways to get out on a daily basis.

Ironically, behind the plate is the only place the Jays improved, picking up the surprising Rod Barajas. The pitching has been superb; Shaun Marcum has a better ERA than Ben Sheets, Brandon Webb, Joe Saunders, Dan Haren, Aaron Cook, Cole Hamels, Josh Beckett, and Johan Santana. Roy Halladay has six complete games, no one else in the Majors has more than three. Even AJ Burnett has shown up a few times this year.

The Jays just cannot hit with runners in scoring position. They hit into more double plays than any team in Major League Baseball. In other words, they’re not as good on the field as they are on paper.

Upon this painful realization Riccardi should’ve fallen on his own sword, seeing as how he is the main architect of this disaster. After 89 games tendencies are now realities. Sure, a team may go on a run maybe get hot, but that is little more than a good streak and not a true indication of the real talent level of the team.

The Jays aren’t the only victims of over evaluation. In every sport teams do it every year, because putting some talented players together doesn’t guarantee success. The games are won and lost in the smallest of details.

The small margin for error also combines with the fact that there are 30 teams of professionals also vying for the same end goal as my team. The head-to-head battles then become the true measuring stick of success, because ‘this-guy’s-seasons-two-years-ago’ just isn’t enough to put runs on the board today.

While short-term job expectancy comes with the territory of being a big league coach/manager, I think they’re hung out to dry too quickly, especially if the team is close to winning. In the NHL, the San Jose Sharks have been on the brink of getting to the Stanley Cup Finals for about four years now. Each time they’re eliminated it seems that they’re a few bounces for rather than against away from getting over the hump. And yet every year the call is for ‘one more impact player’, or, as is the case this year, a new coach.

The Phoenix Suns are another example. They’ll be wondering ‘what if’ about those Game Five suspensions for the rest of their lives. And now they’ve made a boatload of changes to try and prolong the decline.

But I believe that if the coach is having success with that group, they should stick together. What will get them over the hump may not be a change of pace, but rather, sticking together. Some teams need to go through the losing pains before they are ready to sacrifice all that it takes to win. Sometimes, you just need a little luck.

On the other hand I understand where managers are coming from. If you’re lucky, you’ll have a few good years with which to win. Owners, GMs; these are they guys that are inclined to do something rash because it’s become expected of them. It’s become, ‘we’ve got to fire this guy because that’s what everyone is saying on television.’ It’s amazing to me how you can always tell when it’s coming. I didn’t need TV to tell me, things were going badly for Toronto and we all knew Gibby was going to hang for it.

The only thing I know is that it takes a lot of magic to win in any sport. Sure you need talent, and determination, and hard work; but that’s a given because no team would be close if they didn’t have those things. What you really need is the one thing that no GM, no Coach, no All-Star can guarantee: Lady Fortuna.

And every year she makes a victim of 29 or more teams, only to re-emerge in the off-season to entice us yet again, so that we will believe she is not so elusive, not this year.